LOSSES AND WINS
Quick commentary on the recent liberal defeat in Quebec during the three by-elections.
1. Thom Mulcair's popularity won Outremont not the NDP. Secondly, while this might be the case the liberals clearly have an immense credibility problem and their organization seemed fairly shoddy as well.
2. While the Tories won in the BQ heartland, all I can say is better a nominally federalist party than the BQists.
Overall the political landscape is as rocky and unpredictable as it has been for some time. I continue to predict that at this point unless the Tories cause their own collapse (which I don't think they'll do) we will not have another election until the scheduled date in 2009.
Cheers,
P
Quick commentary on the recent liberal defeat in Quebec during the three by-elections.
1. Thom Mulcair's popularity won Outremont not the NDP. Secondly, while this might be the case the liberals clearly have an immense credibility problem and their organization seemed fairly shoddy as well.
2. While the Tories won in the BQ heartland, all I can say is better a nominally federalist party than the BQists.
Overall the political landscape is as rocky and unpredictable as it has been for some time. I continue to predict that at this point unless the Tories cause their own collapse (which I don't think they'll do) we will not have another election until the scheduled date in 2009.
Cheers,
P
posted by Patrick at
12:35 PM
3 Comments:
We should revisit our predictions when the Conservatives first came to power. I don't know if you still have that blog page.
As I recall, days after the election in early '06, me, you and several others each guessed how long this minority gov't would last. I think I said at the time it'd take 26-30 months until the next election (several where saying a year at most).
By
Anonymous, at 12:14 PM
I know I called a Spring 2007 election. And in all fairness, if the polls just before the return to Parliament after Easter break were slightly more edged to the Tories, it likely would have happened. An election machine is a hard thing to stop once it has momentum.
By
Kirk Schmidt, at 7:00 AM
Mark,
You're absolutely right. However after the 'almost' election in earlier this year just before the Quebec eletion my views changed completely.
At that point in time there really was an opportunity, harper was up and the opposition was giving him something almost like cause to call an election. However he waited (due to a gentlemen's agreement with Charest not to risk a fed election until the quebec election was over).
Regardless the polls have stagnated since that time and no party is really making any breakthroughs. There for since the spring I've reevaluated and been calling for 2009.
Although this sabre rattling by the Bloc could move things up but I doubt it.
Cheers,
P
By
Patrick, at 6:41 AM
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